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风险科学的必要性

November 18, 2015 by Charles Eisenstein

November 2015


 

我刚刚花了几个小时来研究一个类似“钻兔洞”(down a rabbit hole)的问题。该问题是关于“电力宇宙”(electric universe)——这一非传统的宇宙理论强调宇宙的首要构建力量不是万有引力而是电磁感应。该理论为诸多现象提供了另一种解释,包括红移(redshift)、宇宙背景辐射、宇宙演化(cosmogenesis)、星体形成、星系形成、太阳物理等等。

在重新熟悉该理论之后(我第一次探索该理论是在10年前),我开始阅读该理论众多批评者的作品(他们中的大部分都使用了“揭穿真相”这个词)。对于这一“网上流行”的理论我竟信以为真,这是多么愚蠢啊!这些批评者指出了“电力宇宙”论支持者所犯的基本错误,称他们不过是一些“疯傻怪人”(cranks and crackpots)。问题就这样解决了,是吗?

并不尽然。接下来,我读了一些对那些“揭穿真相者”(debunkers)的回应,这些回应条分缕析地驳斥了各种批评。我该相信谁?我并非物理学博士,即使我是,显然也无济于事,因为这些在观点上大相径庭的专家大多都拥有博士学位。

作为一个外行之人,虽然我很难评估正方观点和反方观点各自的价值,但我的确注意到双方辩论过程中的一种不对称现象,这种不对称现象令人不安,所产生的后果也远远超过了宇宙论。我接下来要描述的不对称现象在很多领域都有类似的情况,包括科学、医药、教育、经济、甚至任何产生知识并使其合法化的机构。

这种不对称现象的一个方面在于:双方中的一方可以求助于科学界的权威,而另一方却主要由被边缘化的异教徒(heretics)组成。这些持不同证见者抱怨他们在获得科研资金、发表论文和让自己的观点受到认真对待过程中所遇到的种种困难。同时,正统理论的维护者援引同样是缺乏同行评议的期刊杂发表(peer-reviewed journal publication)作为没认真对待“电力宇宙”理论的原因。他们的基本逻辑是这样的:“这些理论还没有被接受,因此它们是不可接受的。”

该如何看待这种情况?如果你相信我们科学机构的合理性,你就会认为这些持不同证见者被边缘化是完全有理由的:他们的作品没能达到标准。如果你相信同行评议的程序是公正公开的,那么“电力宇宙”研究中缺乏同行评议的引证就成了对该理论致命的指控。如果你相信主流物理学的语料基本正确,科学正日益接近真理,你就会高度怀疑对标准理论的任何重大偏离。

这种不对称现象的另一个方面在于对异议的草率对待。那些揭穿真相者只有一个层次的深度(one level deep)——他们批评异议,却对针对他们批评的回应置之不理。为什么不呢?如果你还是相信科学机构的合理性,那原因一定是这样的对话对严肃的物理学家来说纯属浪费时间。他们若是费心去驳斥每一个由那些自认为是下一个爱因斯坦的人所创造的理论的话,恐怕就没有时间去进行教学或科研了。然而,风险在于合理的非正统理论也有同样的缺点(tarred with the same wide brush)。从声称是无懈可击的前提中所得出的理论似乎往往是荒谬的。

双方的辩论在使强大正统性和边缘化非正统性相对立的其他问题上引起了共鸣,而辩论中令人不安的一面在于大量使用稀有的引语和类似“伪科学”这样的嘲笑性表达,以便对读者施加心理压力,可读者并不想被认为是傻瓜。这些策略造成了内团体/外团体社会动力(in-group/out-group social dynamics),促使人怀疑科学界内可能也盛行着同样的动力,以便能够强化团体思想(groupthink)、排除异议。但是,也有可能非正统理论真的是一派胡言,活该受到嘲笑。我们这些门外汉无从得知。这最终还是要取决于我们对权威的信任。

对于人类安康而言,宇宙学相对来说无关紧要(或者也可能并非如此,不过我们先把这个问题搁置一旁),但同样的动力也适用于对人类和生物圈来说生死有关的事情,特别是在医学和农学领域(比如,关于转基因生物的辩论)。我们能相信科学共识吗?我们能相信科学机构的正直性吗?

或许不能。在最近的几年里,与日俱增的内部批评者一直都在揭露科研资助及科研发表方式的种种重大缺陷,以致于某些人甚至提出“科学已毁”(Science is broken)的观点。

他们所描述的功能失调包括:

—故意的、无意识的、系统性欺骗

—结果的不可复制性及缺乏进行复证的刺激

—统计数字的滥用,比如“P值操纵”(P-hacking)——挖掘研究数据以

提取因果“假设”(post-hoc “hypothesis”)来进行发表

—同行评议系统的严重缺陷,比如该系统倾向于强迫实行现存范式,攻击

任何挑战评议者观点的意见,因为这些评议者的毕生事业都致力于这些

观点

—难以获得用于创造性和非传统研究假设的资金支持

—偏爱积极结果而非消极结果的发表偏见,压制不利于研究者职业的研究

该系统鼓励对已经达成共识的现存理论进行无尽的详细阐释,但如果其中某个理论是错误的,那么要想去纠正它就会面临几乎难以逾越的重重障碍。这例证了对范式转变的“库恩式抵抗” (Kuhnsian resistance)。前美国卫生研究所(NIH)所长兼诺贝将得主哈罗德 •瓦姆斯(Harold Varmus)如是说:

该系统现在偏爱那些能够保证结果的人,而非那些有潜在开创性思想却又无法确保成功的人。年轻的研究者本应该提出新的问题、创造新的方法,可他们却中规中矩地进行着他们的博士后工作,而不敢有太大的偏离。经验丰富的研究者倾向于坚持他们屡试不爽的程序,却不去探索新的领域。

另一位诺贝尔奖得主西德尼 •布雷纳(Sydeny Brenner)也提到同样的问题:

现在的(财政)支持者、科学界的官僚主义者,不想冒任何风险。所以,为了获得支持,他们想从一开始就知道方法可行。这就意味着你需要拥有初步的信息,也就意味着你一定会沿着“正道”(the straight and narrow)前进。这样以来,除了在一些个别地方,就不存在任何的探索了。

关于大受吹捧、本该保持高研究标准的同行评议,他是这样评论的:

我认为同行评议正阻碍科学的发展。事实上,我认为它已经成为一个彻底腐败的系统。它的腐败是多方面的,因为科学家和学术界已经把评判科学和科学家的能力移交给了期刊的编辑们。我从许多评委会那里听说,美国的某些大学不会考虑人们在低影响力期刊上发表的文章…把评判的权力交给了那些根本没有理由进行评判的人手中。这一切都是在商业的帮助下完成的,因为他们现在成了从中谋利的组织巨头。

因此,他在响应这种与日俱增的情绪时说到,像彼得 •希格斯(Peter Higgs)、费雷德 •桑格(Fred Sanger)和弗朗西斯 •克里克(Francis Crick)在今天的学术环境中是“无法存活的”。 科学的权威范式已经持续了很长时间。这是因为它们的正确性呢,还是因为对创新者、冒险者及特立独行者的排斥呢?他们并没有受到上一代科学家所受到的那种支持。

如果与日俱增的批评者是正确的,如果科学正日益被官僚惰性(bureaucratic inertia)、金钱利益、对新思想的意识形态抵抗所统治,那我们该怎么办呢?有两个问题需要解决:发表和资金。两者缺一不可。现在有一个关于在线发表(online publishing)和众包同行评议(crowdsourced peer review)的强劲运动,该运动正将研究从既定的顶端期刊的控制中解放出来。这些期刊仍然拥有巨大的影响力——大学招聘、工作晋升、资金支持都对其特别重视——但是至少我们现在有了知识传播的其他渠道。这些渠道可以形成一种新科学文化的基础设施,就像很多其他系统一样,这种新文化偏离了旧的中央集权式的等级化模式。

对于资金,一项新倡议正在进行,以便能为一些研究者提供支持,使其能够解决不流行的问题、探索非正统的假设、开创和既定的金钱及思想利益相冲突的理论和技术。这一倡议就叫“风险科学机构”(Institute for Venture Science)。这并非是一种边缘运作(fringe operation)。两位诺贝尔奖得主、国家科学理事会(National Science Board)、几位大学院长及校长,组成了咨询委员会(advisory board)。该倡议的领导人是杰拉尔德 •波拉克(Gerald Pollack),他是华盛顿大学的生物工程教授,受到70多位教授、院长及其他相关人物的支持。9月25日将在西雅图举行一次潜在资助者的研讨发布会。

当然,正统理论的维护者可能会说这些杰出的诺贝尔奖得主及教授(他们中的许多已退休)已至暮年,精神混乱。但无论“风险科学机构”能否成功,单单是受到科学界这么多人支持这一事实就表明了科学正在发生巨变,重心已经从旧的中央集权机构转移出来,而这一转移只是超越科学的平行转移(parallel shift)的一部分。正如在政治、经济及生态系统中那样,曾经似乎毋庸置疑的理论现在正经受质疑。而且这种质疑现在正潜入主流。


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